Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2250 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2250 IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1477 IAH 18:42 → SAT 19:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2250 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SAT 08:27	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SAT 10:47	10%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:45	SAT 15:56	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:42	SAT 19:50	20%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 6201 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:39	SAT 10:46	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
UA 6202 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:08	SAT 13:17	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON