Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 439 IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 2638 IAH 16:25 → SEA 19:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	17%	6%	0.6%	72%
AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:41	18%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	20%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2228 United	IAH 12:02	SEA 14:27	21%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	22%	7%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SEA 09:25AA 707	6h 23m	92%	74%
Frontier Details →	IAH 10:26 → DEN 12:05F9 3227	57m Denver	DEN 13:02 → SEA 15:01F9 1175	6h 35m	79%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON