Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4642 IAH 12:29 → SGF 14:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5211 IAH 18:44 → SGF 20:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4642 SkyWest	IAH 12:29	SGF 14:20	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5274 SkyWest	IAH 16:49	SGF 18:40	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 5211 SkyWest	IAH 18:44	SGF 20:34	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 4569 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:25	SGF 14:15	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4911 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:30	SGF 16:20	21%	8%	1.4%	79%
UA 4867 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:50	SGF 18:43	24%	7%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON