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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 1h 13m Denver DEN 08:00 → SJC 09:40UA 2031 6h 25m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 11m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → SJC 11:18AA 2046 8h 16m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 42m Chicago ORD 09:41 → SJC 12:25UA 307 9h 21m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256 7h 49m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 53m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 7h 50m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 8h 43m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 74% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON