Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1583 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1583 IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 5301 IAH 12:22 → SLC 14:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1583 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:35	SLC 09:48	9%	4%	0.4%	86%
UA 2242 United Flight history →	IAH 10:02	SLC 12:37	10%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:01	SLC 21:15	15%	7%	0.5%	79%
DL 1532 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:21	SLC 16:33	17%	5%	0.4%	86%
OO 5301 SkyWest	IAH 12:22	SLC 14:30	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 6207 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:25	SLC 16:40	20%	5%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON