Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:21, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1155 United	IAH 09:57	SMF 11:58	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 13m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	6h 20m	97%	90%
United Details →	IAH 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 417	1h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 09:31 → SMF 11:18UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	7h 18m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 41m	96%	88%
United Details →	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	98%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	8h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 39m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 15m	98%	85%
United Details →	IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575	2h 49m Denver	DEN 11:41 → SMF 13:19UA 2673	7h 59m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	IAH 14:54 → LAS 16:21F9 4131	50m Las Vegas	LAS 17:11 → SMF 19:00F9 4143	6h 06m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON