tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1383 United Flight history → IAH 09:30 SNA 10:59 14% 4% 0.6% 91%
UA 1533 United IAH 12:21 SNA 14:06 16% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 53m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 52m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 31m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → SNA 09:55AA 2114 6h 53m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 17m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 25m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 47m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 51m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 1h 57m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 7h 21m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 47m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 24m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:35 → SFO 11:35UA 2358 47m San Francisco SFO 12:22 → SNA 14:02UA 2441 6h 27m 62% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON