Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → SRQ 12:26DL 3104	5h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:19DL 3115	7h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:41 → ATL 12:48DL 1585	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 36m	99%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 08m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → SRQ 21:32DL 1057	5h 54m	96%	82%
United Details →	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	1h 39m Newark	EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324	8h 29m	90%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON