Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5261 IAH 07:34 → TUL 09:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5745 IAH 18:24 → TUL 20:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5261 SkyWest	IAH 07:34	TUL 09:15	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5745 SkyWest	IAH 18:24	TUL 20:03	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 6179 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 21:42	TUL 23:15	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 4239 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	4%	1.8%	84%
UA 6269 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:14	TUL 21:52	19%	5%	0.0%	81%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	TUL 20:00	23%	8%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON