tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4040 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 20:00 TUS 20:42 17% 11% 0.0% 83%
UA 6219 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 09:32 TUS 10:07 18% 10% 0.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937 8h 55m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 53m Denver DEN 07:40 → TUS 08:58UA 1511 5h 43m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251 9h 11m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 38m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 12m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → TUS 08:38AA 1014 5h 36m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → TUS 11:24AA 2187 7h 22m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:16 → PHX 15:17AA 2357 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 17:02 → TUS 18:01AA 6518 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 90% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:09 → DFW 08:42AA 3026 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 7h 17m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON