Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 09m Denver	DEN 09:56 → TVC 14:49UA 2420	8h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	IAH 06:13 → ORD 09:07AA 3106	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → TVC 14:10AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON