Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5783 IAH 09:34 → XNA 11:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5264 IAH 14:36 → XNA 16:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5783 SkyWest	IAH 09:34	XNA 11:16	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5264 SkyWest	IAH 14:36	XNA 16:17	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4062 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:32	XNA 16:15	14%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 4297 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:35	XNA 11:12	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
UA 6308 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:12	XNA 21:55	21%	7%	1.5%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON