Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2216 ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2128 ICT 18:32 → ATL 22:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2216 Delta Flight history →	ICT 05:43	ATL 08:54	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1637 Delta Flight history →	ICT 11:11	ATL 14:26	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 828 Delta	ICT 13:11	ATL 16:30	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2128 Delta Flight history →	ICT 18:32	ATL 22:00	7%	3%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON