Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3515 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3515 ICT 07:16 → DEN 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5630 ICT 18:45 → DEN 19:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3515 Southwest	ICT 07:16	DEN 07:49	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5355 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 06:08	DEN 06:53	7%	4%	0.5%	92%
OO 5813 SkyWest	ICT 11:41	DEN 12:17	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 5972 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 13:35	DEN 14:20	16%	5%	0.5%	89%
WN 4426 Southwest	ICT 19:31	DEN 20:02	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 5240 SkyWest	ICT 17:20	DEN 17:58	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2082 United	ICT 09:40	DEN 10:17	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5630 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 18:45	DEN 19:21	23%	6%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON