Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: C5 4248 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day C5 4248 ICT 06:31 → IAH 08:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4510 ICT 17:01 → IAH 18:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


C5 4248 CommuteAir	ICT 06:31	IAH 08:25	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	ICT 09:01	IAH 10:56	12%	3%	0.8%	95%
C5 4338 CommuteAir	ICT 13:01	IAH 14:56	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4552 GoJet	ICT 15:24	IAH 17:17	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4510 GoJet	ICT 17:01	IAH 18:54	22%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON