tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2152 Southwest ICT 13:06 LAS 13:43 13% 2% 0.4% no record
G4 1631 Allegiant ICT 11:35 LAS 12:15 15% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:51 → LAS 11:02UA 1767 6h 54m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 19m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:54 → LAS 17:09DL 659 7h 58m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 1h 17m Chicago ORD 10:52 → LAS 12:46UA 1803 7h 21m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:01 → IAH 10:56UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 24m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 36m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Chicago ORD 15:54 → LAS 17:57UA 1875 9h 00m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Denver DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424 5h 53m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:21AA 5104 · flown by PSA 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550 6h 07m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON