Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4043 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 06:46 → ORD 08:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest G7 4558 ICT 18:21 → ORD 20:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:46	ORD 08:39	8%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:35	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	14%	5%	0.7%	80%
OO 6287 SkyWest	ICT 13:56	ORD 15:59	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:45	ORD 16:43	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 18:08	ORD 20:12	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
G7 4558 GoJet	ICT 18:21	ORD 20:19	27%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON