tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 15:08, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history → ICT 15:08 SEA 16:49 13% 3% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → SEA 13:29DL 629 9h 46m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 3h 55m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 10h 44m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:20 → SEA 19:06UA 1801 10h 09m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → ICT 06:46 → ORD 08:39AA 4043 · flown by Envoy 3h 31m Chicago ORD 12:10 → SEA 15:07AA 1476 10h 21m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ICT 13:35 → DEN 14:20UA 5972 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 6h 24m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → ICT 15:49 → MSP 17:38DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881 6h 59m 92% 79%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:21AA 5104 · flown by PSA 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:50 → SEA 13:08AA 717 9h 12m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON