Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 4706 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 4706 IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 5666 IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4706 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 07:00	DEN 08:55	9%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 5793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 10:35	DEN 12:28	10%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 5551 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 17:54	DEN 19:45	18%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 2155 United Flight history →	IDA 14:30	DEN 16:18	18%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 5666 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 16:14	DEN 18:05	20%	7%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON