tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 5009 at 13:55, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5009 SkyWest IDA 13:55 ORD 18:10 28% 10% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335 46m Salt Lake City SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247 5h 00m 85% 76%
AlaskaDetails → IDA 06:22 → SEA 07:20AS 3423 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Seattle SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265 7h 24m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 7h 11m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 1h 52m Denver DEN 18:10 → ORD 21:43UA 2272 6h 13m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:02 → SLC 14:15DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 7h 27m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → IDA 07:00 → DFW 11:00AA 6466 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 7h 51m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → IDA 12:11 → DFW 16:09AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:22 → ORD 20:56AA 2656 7h 45m 95% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON