Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3307 at 16:01, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3307 SkyWest	IDA 16:01	PDX 16:58	16%	10%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IDA 13:02 → SLC 14:15DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	6h 16m	99%	88%
United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	7h 09m	97%	84%
United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	59m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	5h 38m	90%	79%
Alaska Details →	IDA 13:57 → SEA 14:55AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	5h 59m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON