Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3423 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 06:22	SEA 07:20	14%	7%	0.6%	84%
AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 13:57	SEA 14:55	21%	7%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IDA 10:35 → DEN 12:28UA 5793 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Denver	DEN 14:13 → SEA 16:22UA 2833	6h 47m	95%	79%
United Details →	IDA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 4706 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Denver	DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058	7h 14m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	IDA 13:02 → SLC 14:15DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	4h 26m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	IDA 06:00 → SLC 07:04DL 2335	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	4h 02m	85%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON