Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4786 at 12:36 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4786 Republic	ILM 12:36	BOS 14:55	21%	13%	0.9%	no record
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 14:30	BOS 16:42	38%	24%	0.7%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 18m	96%	88%
American Details →	ILM 06:13 → CLT 07:27AA 2695	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 10:21 → BOS 12:46AA 2263	6h 33m	95%	82%
American Details →	ILM 14:44 → CLT 16:06AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → BOS 22:31AA 1843	7h 47m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m New York	LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 15m	100%	77%
American Details →	ILM 08:21 → CLT 09:36AA 2960	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 12:39 → BOS 15:02AA 1140	6h 41m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	6h 32m	95%	74%
American Details →	ILM 11:04 → CLT 12:24AA 5820 · flown by Piedmont	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 14:23 → BOS 16:46AA 901	5h 42m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	56m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	4h 44m	57%	42%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:20 → LGA 19:11DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	LGA 20:01 → BOS 21:15DL 5800 · flown by Republic	3h 55m	59%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON