Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2695 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2695 ILM 06:13 → CLT 07:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2105 ILM 19:09 → CLT 20:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2695 American Flight history →	ILM 06:13	CLT 07:27	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2960 American Flight history →	ILM 08:21	CLT 09:36	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
OH 5482 PSA	ILM 13:54	CLT 15:02	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2413 American	ILM 15:23	CLT 16:37	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	ILM 19:09	CLT 20:23	20%	7%	0.9%	79%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:04	CLT 12:24	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:59	CLT 14:20	17%	12%	1.6%	83%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 14:44	CLT 16:06	22%	10%	0.0%	78%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON