Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4784 at 10:49 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day YX 4784 ILM 10:49 → DCA 12:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5133 ILM 19:37 → DCA 21:01 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4784 Republic	ILM 10:49	DCA 12:21	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 15:27	DCA 16:51	31%	12%	1.7%	75%
AA 5133 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 19:37	DCA 21:01	37%	15%	2.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON