Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3415 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 3415 Envoy	ILM 06:58	DFW 08:55	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4016 Envoy	ILM 16:34	DFW 18:47	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 24m	98%	88%
American Details →	ILM 06:13 → CLT 07:27AA 2695	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747	8h 03m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	6h 16m	100%	84%
American Details →	ILM 11:04 → CLT 12:24AA 5820 · flown by Piedmont	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	6h 54m	100%	83%
American Details →	ILM 08:21 → CLT 09:36AA 2960	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:59 → DFW 14:48AA 1690	7h 27m	98%	82%
American Details →	ILM 08:01 → PHL 09:45AA 6081 · flown by Piedmont	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	8h 30m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m New York	LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869	9h 20m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	5h 37m	93%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON