tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:48, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 41m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → ILM 06:13 → CLT 07:27AA 2695 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 6h 28m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 4h 55m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 6h 26m 95% 61%
AmericanDetails → ILM 14:44 → CLT 16:06AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont 4h 00m Charlotte CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794 7h 28m 98% 58%
AmericanDetails → ILM 12:59 → CLT 14:21AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 16:29 → EWR 18:28AA 1330 5h 29m 90% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont 1h 06m Charlotte CLT 18:44 → EWR 20:42AA 997 4h 27m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON