Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3845 at 06:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3845 Envoy	ILM 06:00	MIA 07:56	10%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 09m	97%	85%
American Details →	ILM 06:13 → CLT 07:27AA 2695	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 58m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 02m	100%	78%
American Details →	ILM 08:21 → CLT 09:36AA 2960	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	7h 15m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:50 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 34m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	7h 31m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	4h 51m	89%	71%
American Details →	ILM 08:01 → PHL 09:45AA 6081 · flown by Piedmont	1h 41m Philadelphia	PHL 11:26 → MIA 14:16AA 1989	6h 15m	90%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 16:15 → CLT 17:38AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont	50m Charlotte	CLT 18:28 → MIA 20:34AA 400	4h 19m	54%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON