Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2149 IND 18:46 → ATL 20:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:36	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:38	ATL 13:17	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	IND 10:07	ATL 11:43	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:05	ATL 09:41	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	IND 20:00	ATL 21:49	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:42	ATL 18:31	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:37	ATL 20:26	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 2149 Southwest	IND 18:46	ATL 20:36	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON