Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2636 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2636 IND 06:21 → AUS 08:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4027 IND 18:30 → AUS 20:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2636 Southwest	IND 06:21	AUS 08:05	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4015 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 07:25	AUS 09:03	6%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 11:34	AUS 13:13	9%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 3071 Southwest	IND 14:46	AUS 16:31	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	16%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON