tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2157 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2157 Southwest IND 07:06 BNA 07:22 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1979 Southwest IND 19:26 BNA 19:42 16% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 14m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295 5h 25m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 11m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 54m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 56m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:42 → ATL 18:31DL 3134 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 6h 02m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:05 → ORD 07:33UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 24m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 6h 17m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IND 08:46 → LGA 11:04AA 4365 · flown by Republic 53m New York LGA 11:57 → BNA 13:36AA 4481 · flown by Republic 5h 50m 61% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON