Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5631 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 5631 IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4726 IND 18:35 → BOS 20:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5631 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:45	BOS 09:10	6%	2%	0.9%	94%
G4 593 Allegiant	IND 06:01	BOS 08:20	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 4408 Republic	IND 08:38	BOS 11:14	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 11:00	BOS 13:26	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
YX 4405 Republic	IND 14:00	BOS 16:35	23%	11%	0.7%	no record
YX 5623 Republic	IND 18:01	BOS 20:34	23%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 4726 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:35	BOS 20:59	24%	10%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON