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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 10h 00m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51UA 1607 2h 24m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:56 → DEN 07:49WN 2787 3h 53m Denver DEN 11:42 → BUR 13:14WN 2620 9h 18m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → SFO 07:42UA 500 51m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 6h 57m 90% 81%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:01 → DFW 07:30AA 2782 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 48m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → IND 07:04 → SEA 08:52AS 625 1h 19m Seattle SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:40AS 478 8h 36m 94% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON