Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2938 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2938 IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 586 IND 18:53 → CLT 20:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2938 American Flight history →	IND 06:42	CLT 08:25	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 346 American Flight history →	IND 10:59	CLT 12:50	11%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 846 American	IND 08:04	CLT 09:50	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1589 American Flight history →	IND 15:00	CLT 16:44	19%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 586 American	IND 18:53	CLT 20:37	22%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON