Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2161 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2161 Southwest	IND 07:16	DAL 08:30	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2343 Southwest	IND 18:46	DAL 20:02	21%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:56 → DEN 07:49WN 2787	1h 58m Denver	DEN 09:47 → DAL 12:50WN 2956	6h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 16:42 → ATL 18:31DL 3134	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 43m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 11:38 → ATL 13:17DL 2952	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 16m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON