Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4626 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 4626 IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OH 5587 IND 14:20 → DCA 16:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4626 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	DCA 07:50	4%	1%	1.0%	83%
AA 4407 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:24	DCA 11:20	7%	2%	1.0%	52%
AA 4352 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:36	DCA 09:26	7%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 4593 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:32	DCA 22:27	14%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:07	DCA 19:09	16%	6%	0.9%	71%
OH 5587 PSA	IND 14:20	DCA 16:06	19%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON