Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2787 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2787 IND 06:56 → DEN 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 3738 IND 18:46 → DEN 19:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2787 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:56	DEN 07:49	3%	1%	0.5%	76%
WN 2580 Southwest	IND 09:56	DEN 10:48	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 2165 Southwest	IND 14:41	DEN 15:31	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:38	DEN 16:31	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 1229 United	IND 19:04	DEN 20:04	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 16:02	DEN 16:59	18%	6%	0.7%	79%
WN 3738 Southwest	IND 18:46	DEN 19:34	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON