Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2782 IND 06:01 → DFW 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1413 IND 20:16 → DFW 21:39 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2782 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	DFW 07:30	6%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 1296 American Flight history →	IND 07:20	DFW 08:50	9%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	IND 11:24	DFW 12:45	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
F9 3203 Frontier Flight history →	IND 11:23	DFW 12:49	12%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 3312 American	IND 14:19	DFW 15:43	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2456 American Flight history →	IND 17:21	DFW 19:21	19%	7%	1.0%	89%
AA 1413 American	IND 20:16	DFW 21:39	22%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON