Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3567 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 3567 IND 05:58 → EWR 08:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3567 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:58	EWR 08:12	2%	1%	0.7%	92%
UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:50	EWR 13:04	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3677 Republic	IND 12:06	EWR 14:28	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 16:00	EWR 18:12	15%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	17%	5%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON