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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1540 at 15:46, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1540 Southwest IND 15:46 FLL 18:28 22% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 54m Dulles IAD 08:13 → FLL 11:09UA 1825 5h 34m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 25m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 6h 25m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → FLL 12:57AA 2585 6h 15m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358 1h 58m Houston IAH 10:26 → FLL 14:20UA 2670 7h 20m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 22m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:05 → ORD 07:33UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 26m Chicago ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279 8h 08m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON