Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4688 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4688 Southwest	IND 05:56	HOU 07:21	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4794 Southwest	IND 20:31	HOU 21:57	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 50m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 15m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:56 → DEN 07:49WN 2787	2h 57m Denver	DEN 10:46 → HOU 14:18WN 1597	8h 22m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON