Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3709 IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 3530 IND 14:48 → IAD 16:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3709 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 10:11	IAD 11:55	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 3530 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:48	IAD 16:32	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 3997 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IND 05:35	IAD 07:19	3%	3%	0.0%	97%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON