Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 598 IND 07:00 → LAX 08:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3201 IND 16:21 → LAX 17:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 598 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	LAX 08:27	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 861 Delta Flight history →	IND 17:25	LAX 18:45	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 3201 American Flight history →	IND 16:21	LAX 17:45	19%	7%	0.7%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IND 15:38 → DEN 16:31UA 377	1h 04m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753	6h 23m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON