Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2174 at 15:01, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2174 Southwest	IND 15:01	MCI 15:44	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:56 → DEN 07:49WN 2787	2h 51m Denver	DEN 10:40 → MCI 13:25WN 2512	7h 29m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349	5h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	4h 43m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	6h 23m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	7h 24m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	7h 02m	96%	86%
United Details →	IND 09:25 → IAH 11:02UA 6223 · flown by Mesa	3h 33m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa	8h 22m	100%	86%
United Details →	IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358	3h 37m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	8h 15m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON