Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2175 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2175 IND 05:11 → MCO 07:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 351 IND 15:56 → MCO 18:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2175 Southwest	IND 05:11	MCO 07:28	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2176 Southwest	IND 08:16	MCO 10:33	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 3762 Frontier Flight history →	IND 10:22	MCO 12:49	10%	4%	0.9%	84%
WN 2699 Southwest	IND 12:21	MCO 14:39	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2384 Southwest	IND 19:33	MCO 21:50	17%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 351 Southwest	IND 15:56	MCO 18:14	18%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON