Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4839 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4839 Southwest	IND 06:47	MDW 06:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2182 Southwest	IND 17:56	MDW 18:08	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 01m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 08m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 07:47 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 59m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	3h 34m	91%	65%
Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	3h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 59m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 09m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON