Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2308 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	8%	2%	1.1%	92%
AA 2862 American	IND 19:18	MIA 22:04	31%	11%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	6h 37m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 02m	98%	86%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	6h 00m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 07m	99%	84%
American Details →	IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4626 · flown by Republic	2h 06m Washington	DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401	6h 46m	100%	84%
American Details →	IND 06:42 → CLT 08:25AA 2938	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 29m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	96%	81%
United Details →	IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358	3h 32m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	8h 47m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IND 14:46 → LGA 16:57DL 5642 · flown by Republic	53m New York	LGA 17:50 → MIA 21:21DL 1620	6h 35m	72%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON