Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3479 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 3479 IND 05:32 → ORD 05:59 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 630 IND 13:06 → ORD 13:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:32	ORD 05:59	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 4412 Republic	IND 10:27	ORD 10:54	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:42	ORD 07:10	6%	2%	0.6%	73%
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:04	ORD 07:32	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:16	ORD 08:41	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3561 Republic	IND 11:41	ORD 12:06	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:02	ORD 15:29	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 4454 Republic	IND 14:26	ORD 14:53	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IND 11:56	ORD 12:13	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:23	ORD 09:47	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 19:00	ORD 19:27	15%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2632 United	IND 13:51	ORD 14:14	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:55	ORD 17:19	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 630 American	IND 13:06	ORD 13:33	17%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON