Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4683 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day YX 4683 IND 08:25 → PHL 10:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3015 IND 19:01 → PHL 21:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4683 Republic	IND 08:25	PHL 10:40	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 4618 Republic	IND 11:26	PHL 13:41	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2847 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	PHL 08:55	11%	3%	1.3%	87%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:36	PHL 15:37	13%	6%	1.5%	81%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:49	PHL 18:49	16%	7%	1.7%	69%
AA 3015 American Flight history →	IND 19:01	PHL 21:10	22%	8%	0.8%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON