Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2504 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2504 IND 06:06 → PHX 06:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1453 IND 18:58 → PHX 19:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2504 Southwest	IND 06:06	PHX 06:57	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2180 Southwest	IND 11:06	PHX 11:56	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2026 American Flight history →	IND 08:11	PHX 09:10	12%	4%	0.6%	93%
WN 3198 Southwest	IND 15:51	PHX 16:38	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 1453 American	IND 18:58	PHX 19:59	21%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON